Projekt APVV-23-0062

Štandardne sa demografické prognózy na Slovensku spracovávajú každých 10 rokov v nadväznosti na výsledky sčítania obyvateľov, z ktorého sa získava východisková štruktúra obyvateľstva podľa pohlavia a veku. V intercenzálnom období sa podľa potreby a okolností spracovávajú revízie prognóz, ktoré sa zameriavajú obvykle len na najpravdepodobnejší scenár prognózy...

Regionálne rozdiely sú na Slovensku významné a dlhodobo sa prejavujúce. Týkajú sa aj demografického správania a samotného populačného vývoja. Rozdiely v reprodukčnom správaní obyvateľov v regiónoch Slovenska (spolu s ďalšími nedemografickými faktormi) majú za následok rozdielne smerovanie počtu, prírastkov a vekového zloženia obyvateľstva. Rozdiely v počte a štruktúre obyvateľov sú súčasťou signifikantných regionálnych rozdielov, ktoré sa prejavujú vo viacerých oblastiach spoločenského života....

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Regional disparities in secondary education present significant obstacles to equitable human capital development, particularly in areas where demographic decline and resource imbalances exacerbate the issue. This study examines the spatial and structural dynamics of secondary education enrollment in Slovakia, focusing on demographic and curricular factors. Using a random-effects spatial error model, we analyze panel data from districts over two decades (2003-2023). The model accounts for spatial interdependencies while addressing unobservable district-level heterogeneity....

Not only among the lay public, but also among experts and scientific researchers who deal with the life of Roma in Slovakia, there is a prevailing opinion that if we wanted to characterize the situation of Roma in Slovakia in one sentence, we would say that it is bad and is constantly getting worse. The presented article aims to implicitly and explicitly show the causes of the current situation by evaluating selected aspects of the life of the Roma ethnic population in Slovakia...

The factors influencing divorce remain a relatively under-researched area within (geo)demographic and sociological studies. This study extends the scope of inquiry by conducting a comprehensive examination of the divorce process. We demonstrate the possible way to discover (regional) factors of family dissolution using geostatistical methods, in addition to a demographical approach. In terms of the research background, a comparative perspective is essential. Here, we bring quite a pioneering view. For decades, the two countries involved, Czechia and Slovakia, shared the same legal environment within one state (Czechoslovakia) with a socialist regime. At the same time, many demographic, social, cultural, and religious dissimilarities existed between them. Through a multidimensional analysis, we aim to identify the influence of different groups of divorce factors at the level of local administrative units (LAU 1) during two transformation stages, specifically in three time series: at the beginning of the postsocialist transformation, at the turn of the millennium in 2001, and in 2011. We bring new empirical evidence and underline the role of geographical methods when discovering the time and space patterns of divorce. The most important finding is that regional differences are mostly induced by factors associated with religion, reproductive behavior, economic activity, education, and marital behavior. However, the explainability of regional factors after two decades of societal transformation is lower.

Our study focuses on forecasting commuting flows to Slovakia’s two largest cities – Bratislava and Košice – for the years 2030 and 2040, using interaction modeling, specifically an origin-constrained model. The model was calibrated using data from the 2021 Population and Housing Census and subsequently applied to demographic forecast up to 2040. The results reveal regional variations in model accuracy, with Bratislava showing higher predictive precision over shorter distances compared to Košice. Our results suggests a slight increase in commuting to Bratislava by 2030, followed by a decline by 2040, while Košice is expected to experience a decrease already by 2030, continuing through 2040. These trends are primarily driven by population ageing in a peripheral districts and immigration, particularly within economically active age group to the nearby hinterland of cities. The study also highlights the need to enhance model approaches by incorporating behavioral factors and improving data accuracy, which could increase the practical applicability of interaction models for strategic planning in mobility, transportation, and regional development.

The factors influencing divorce remain a relatively under-researched area within (geo)demographic and sociological studies. This study extends the scope of inquiry by conducting a comprehensive examination of the divorce process. We demonstrate the possible way to discover (regional) factors of family dissolution using geostatistical methods, in addition to a demographical approach. In terms of the research background, a comparative perspective is essential. Here, we bring quite a pioneering view. For decades, the two countries involved, Czechia and Slovakia, shared the same legal environment within one state (Czechoslovakia) with a socialist regime. At the same time, many demographic, social, cultural, and religious dissimilarities existed between them. Through a multidimensional analysis, we aim to identify the influence of different groups of divorce factors at the level of local administrative units (LAU 1) during two transformation stages, specifically in three time series: at the beginning of the postsocialist transformation, at the turn of the millennium in 2001, and in 2011. We bring new empirical evidence and underline the role of geographical methods when discovering the time and space patterns of divorce. The most important finding is that regional differences are mostly induced by factors associated with religion, reproductive behavior, economic activity, education, and marital behavior. However, the explainability of regional factors after two decades of societal transformation is lower.

Migration plays a crucial role in reshaping regional socioeconomic disparities, particularly in post-socialist countries. This study examines migration patterns and their role in reinforcing spatial polarization in Slovakia. It aims to identify key economic, infrastructural, and demographic factors influencing migration trends and to assess their long-term impact on regional development. The study employs spatial panel econometric models to analyze district-level migration data in Slovakia spanning from 2002 to 2022. It utilizes migration efficiency indices, attraction efficiency indices, and gross migration balance rates in combination with economic variables: unemployment, GDP per capita, housing prices, and population structure. Spatial regression models account for spatial autocorrelation and interdependencies across districts. Findings indicate persistent west-east polarization, with Bratislava and western regions gaining population due to economic opportunities and suburbanization, while eastern Slovakia faces continued out-migration linked to economic stagnation and infrastructural deficiencies. Spatial effects show migration trends are significantly influenced by neighbouring districts, thus reinforcing cumulative regional advantages and disadvantages.

This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics and structural causes of internal migration polarization in Slovakia (2001–2024), testing the cumulative causation hypothesis. Using district-level data and three indices – including spatial efficiency metrics – we map persistent clustering. Results confirm an entrenched core-periphery system. A highly efficient cluster of sustained gains is confined to the Bratislava metropolitan region, while chronic structural losses dominate Eastern and Northern Slovakia, confirming the entrenched backwash effect. Crucially, clustering intensity in efficiency metrics accelerated sharply post-2008, validating accelerated divergence and rejecting the neoclassical equilibrium model. The spatial structure of migration efficiency, not raw volume, is the definitive factor driving human capital erosion and demographic aging in the periphery.

Understanding the future development of census households is crucial for effective planning of social and economic measures. It enables better adaptation of housing construction, infrastructure, and social services to the changing needs of the population. At the same time, it provides important information for the pension system, healthcare, and family policies, thereby helping to ensure the sustainable development of society. The aim of this paper is to analyze the development of census households in Slovakia up to 2040 based on the results of the most recent Projection of the development of census households made in 2024. The analysis focuses on three aspects of development, namely the number, size and type of census households.

Several external factors can affect the process of entering into marriage. From the perspective of population structures, the intensity and timing of marriage are most often analysed in connection with the age and gender of the engaged couple. No less important factors that can influence when and with what intensity people enter into marriage include education, economic status, ethnicity, religious belief, or the location and quality of housing conditions. However, such detailed differential analyses are less frequent, and Slovakia is no exception. The unique possibility of linking records of people entering into marriage in 2021 with the results of the 2021 Population and Housing Census created a unique database for a specific differential analysis. Therefore, the paper aims to answer whether education, mother tongue, religious belief, current economic status, and selected housing conditions influence the intensity and timing of the marriage process in Slovakia.

One of the important reasons for the lower life expectancy at birth in Slovakia compared to some countries, especially in northern and southwestern Europe, seems to be the higher mortality from avoidable causes of death. This is also reflected in premature deaths and years of life lost due to deaths from this specific causes of death. The paper aims to empirically identify the years of life lost in Slovakia and its regions due to causes of death that are perceived as avoidable according to the latest Eurostat and the OECD classification. We also attempt to point out the main development trends. The internal structure of avoidable mortality is also analyzed through its three main subgroups. The regional analysis is aimed above all on the development and identification of the primary spatial differences in the years of life lost due to premature deaths from one of the avoidable causes of death.

The transformation of family and reproductive behaviour in Slovakia has significantly impacted not only the population of the largest cities since the 1990s and has also gradually given rise to key changes in smaller towns and rural municipalities, regardless of their size or region. Notable changes include a significant decrease in the rates of marriage and motherhood, an increase in the divorce rate, a tendency to marry and become parents at older ages, and a growing proportion of children born out of wedlock. These trends represent the new model of family and reproductive behaviour in urban areas and their suburbs. However, a comprehensive analysis of these changes over time, with a primary focus on the differences between Slovakia's largest city and its suburbs, has not been extensively developed. Although these trends have been observed in both urban and suburban populations, can we assume that there are differences in the dynamics of these trends and the extent of their spread as well as contrasting behaviours between the largest city and its suburb. Or, given the advanced stage of transformation, are we witnessing convergence in the intensity and timing of family and reproductive behaviours, suggesting that urban and suburban populations are becoming more alike. We aim to address these questions through a detailed analysis of key indicators related to fertility, marriage, and divorce. This study examines the characteristic features of family and reproductive behaviour among the populations of the largest city in Slovakia and its suburban area from the mid-1990s to 2023. The results will help identify potential differences and their development over time.

The early and almost universal model of motherhood did not apply in Slovakia's new social, economic, cultural, and political conditions after 1989. Dynamic changes in reproductive and family behaviour confirmed that young cohorts of women born since the late 1960s quickly and decisively rejected it. Postponing family transitions on the path to adulthood became a key element in their life paths. The most significant of these was, above all, postponing maternal starts. These changes resulted in a shift in the mean age at first birth and a significantly growing share of childless women. Never in the history of Slovakia have women become mothers for the first time at such a late age. The paper aims to analyse the process of postponing the birth of first children and the associated period of childlessness among women in Slovakia through a specific analysis of data from the 2021 Population Census. We are attempting to quantify the timing and level of childlessness, specifically at the end of the reproductive period (final childlessness) and at the age of 35, which may indicate potential childlessness. No less important is the use of data from the 2021 Population Census for a differential analysis of the timing of first births and childlessness. The results confirmed both the continued postponement of giving birth to first children and the deepening of the share of childless women, but at the same time, indicate a significant slowdown of this process in the last intercensal period. The existence of substantial differences in the timing and childlessness of women in terms of their education, ethnicity, mother tongue, religion, or place of residence was also confirmed.

The coexistence of several census households in one dwelling is a complex phenomenon that affects many factors. The most important ones are the degree of urbanization and the associated structure of the housing stock. The development of coexistence of census households over the past 60 years has been uneven, a significant impact on the trend of coexistence of census households was the change in the political regime at the end of the 1980s. Regional differences in coexistence of census households in Slovakia are significant and are essentially similar to regional differences in family and reproductive behavior of the population.

Although the concept of so-called replacement migration has been well known for several decades, it is not often applied at the subnational level. This study is conducted at both the national and district levels in Slovakia. In addition to migration, theoretical fertility scenarios are also modelled. Mortality is used in only one scenario. The aim of the simulations is to contribute to the understanding and quantification of the future population size and age composition depending on different variants of fertility and migration. We seek fertility and migration scenarios that ensure the stable development of population size and age composition, thereby maintaining the current number and mean age of the population. We demonstrate that these scenarios, with a few exceptions, are theoretical, as a decrease in population size and an increase in the mean age of the population are irreversible. The strong influence of population momentum is evident. High population dynamics before 1989 caused large cohorts to move into senior age, and even extremely high migration and fertility rates cannot reverse the trend. Only a few districts in some scenarios represent an exception.